The number of contestants competing in each state has become the subject of much interest this year in the wake of NBC pulling Miss USA from the air in July and the sale of the Miss Universe Organisation - a discussion that has intensified this week with the revelation Vermont has only six contestants in each division. I've heard from more than one state director that losing the "free advertising" for their pageants during the Miss USA telecast has has a massive effect on their contestant numbers and hence their bottom line.
It's well known I have a love of stats and maps, so I thought I'd attempt some analysis of where we are with contestant numbers available for half the state pageants. Fortunately I started collecting contestant numbers in 2007 which has made the job a little easier. Below you can download my spreadsheet, which has three pages: Miss contestant numbers, Teen, and the Combine Miss + Teen stats.
To the right I've provided a handy key of which states have managed to grow their numbers (represented by graduated shades of blue) and which have declined (represented in red). The first column and group of collective stats are the 2016 numbers compared to the average of the three previous years 2013-2015; the second are the last three years 2014-2016, compared to the first three years for which I have data, 2007 to 2009. My thinking in comparing to an average of three years in each case is to reduce the impact of any outliers, given that numbers do jump around a bit in each state each year. Leave a comment if I've confused you and you need further explanation!
In the latter case, I have only provided stats if I have numbers for at least two of those three years, which has ruled out a few states like Alabama and Mississippi that did not reveal contestant numbers at the time.
With all the maps I've used percentage change (because you can't compare Vermont with Texas!) but if you're interested in raw numbers, they're all in the spreadsheet.
It's well known I have a love of stats and maps, so I thought I'd attempt some analysis of where we are with contestant numbers available for half the state pageants. Fortunately I started collecting contestant numbers in 2007 which has made the job a little easier. Below you can download my spreadsheet, which has three pages: Miss contestant numbers, Teen, and the Combine Miss + Teen stats.
To the right I've provided a handy key of which states have managed to grow their numbers (represented by graduated shades of blue) and which have declined (represented in red). The first column and group of collective stats are the 2016 numbers compared to the average of the three previous years 2013-2015; the second are the last three years 2014-2016, compared to the first three years for which I have data, 2007 to 2009. My thinking in comparing to an average of three years in each case is to reduce the impact of any outliers, given that numbers do jump around a bit in each state each year. Leave a comment if I've confused you and you need further explanation!
In the latter case, I have only provided stats if I have numbers for at least two of those three years, which has ruled out a few states like Alabama and Mississippi that did not reveal contestant numbers at the time.
With all the maps I've used percentage change (because you can't compare Vermont with Texas!) but if you're interested in raw numbers, they're all in the spreadsheet.
| statecontestantnumbers.xls |
With the Miss division, the Pacific Northwest states of Pageants Northwest have clearly been the most successful at growing and recruiting their numbers since 2007-2009. David and Maureen took over Idaho in 2008 and Montana in 2014. Washington's success is due largely to a spike over 70+ contestants between 2014-15 although that settled down this year to a more average 34. The biggest losers this year compared to the recent years 2013-15 are West Virginia, Vermont and Iowa, whilst Montana, Wisconsin, Missouri and South Dakota have been able to grow their numbers somewhat.
It is Teen where most states have really shed numbers, in sizeable percentages. With IL and VT, I'd surmise a change in directors has had a significant impact. In IL, D&D often had 100+ teens, numbers never traditionally seen in Vanbros states. So in this case I think it may actually be intentional. I can't explain North Carolina!
This is where it gets concerning. Only five states have managed to grow their total contestant numbers this year compared to recent years, whilst five different states have had an increase compared to 2007-2009 (and all very modest growth). Perhaps Washington's 43% should be looked at in light of 2014 & 2015 pulling up their average for the three years I was looking at, but I guess we'll be able to assess that better that next year.
Thoughts? Anything else you've noticed? Questions? I encourage you to please do leave a comment below.
Thoughts? Anything else you've noticed? Questions? I encourage you to please do leave a comment below.
RSS Feed
