Miss New Hampshire USA & Teen USA 2016 will be crowned this Sunday.  Contestant numbers are posted here (miss) and here (teen), they have dropped in each division but are still higher than their neighbours in VT which is holding its pageant the same day.

Most notable in the Miss division is the return of Miss New Hampshire Teen USA 2005 Brittany Dube.  Brittany is competing for Miss NH USA for the first time but has previously competed in Miss NH (MAO).  Should she win she would tie Miss Maine USA 2011 Ashley Marble for the longest gap between Teen and Miss.  I think this will be the very last time we see a 2005 Teen on the Miss stage!

There are a number of past runners-up competing this year as well: from last year first runner-up Sarah Mousseau is back, 2012 second runner-up Rebecca Scalera and Miss RI USA 2013 first runner-up Jessica Strohm.

Returning 2015 semi-finalists are Allissa Latham and Katherine Doyle.

​The only returning contestant in the Teen division is 2015 second runner-up Destiny Donahue, who was also 2RU in 2013.

Miss Arkansas USA & Teen USA 2016 will be crowned this Sunday in Bentonville, Arkansas.  The pageants will be streamed at www.pageantvision.com.  For now, contestant photos are posted here, although official photos and gown pics will be released after arrivals.

In the Miss division, three of last year's runners-up are back, two of whom are former Miss Arkansas Teen USA titleholders.  2009 Teen titleholder  Allison Kusenberger has made the top five the past four years, placing second or third runner-up each time.  Third runner-up last year was Miss AR Teen USA 2013 Abby Floyd, who was one of the first 2013 Teens to come back for Miss.  She recently got engaged so this might be her last shot!  The third returning runner-up is Sierra Gorton, 4RU last year, who was also a semi-finalist in the 2013 Teen pageant with Abby.  The only returning semi-finalists are  Skyla Weeks who made top fifteen in the Teen contest last year and Haley Pontius, another 2013 Teen semi-finalist.  There are a number of non-finalists back, including Tarole Harris who last competed in Hawaii in 2012.

​Last year's Teen competition was super special with four stunning blondes and a brunette duking it out in the top five - the crown could easily have gone to any one of them - so I'm sad that only Makenzie Sexton is the only returning runner-up!  In fact, out of 42 contestants (ten more than last year) there are only three returning contestants, Mackenzie, semi-finalist Courtlyn Jackson and non-finalist Alexandria Paladino.

The number of contestants competing in each state has become the subject of much interest this year in the wake of NBC pulling Miss USA from the air in July and the sale of the Miss Universe Organisation - a discussion that has intensified this week with the revelation Vermont has only six contestants in each division.  I've heard from more than one state director that losing the "free advertising" for their pageants during the Miss USA telecast has has a massive effect on their contestant numbers and hence their bottom line.  

It's well known I have a love of stats and maps, so I thought I'd attempt some analysis of where we are with contestant numbers available for half the state pageants.  Fortunately I started collecting contestant numbers in 2007 which has made the job a little easier.  Below you can download my spreadsheet, which has three pages: Miss contestant numbers, Teen, and the Combine Miss + Teen stats.

To the right I've provided a handy key of which states have managed to grow their numbers (represented by graduated shades of blue) and which have declined (represented in red).  The first column and group of collective stats are the 2016 numbers compared to the average of the three previous years 2013-2015; the second are the last three years 2014-2016, compared to the first three years for which I have data, 2007 to 2009.  My thinking in comparing to an average of three years in each case is to reduce the impact of any outliers, given that numbers do jump around a bit in each state each year.  Leave a comment if I've confused you and you need further explanation!

​In the latter case, I have only provided stats if I have numbers for at least two of those three years, which has ruled out a few states like Alabama and Mississippi that did not reveal contestant numbers at the time.  

With all the maps I've used percentage change (because you can't compare Vermont with Texas!) but if you're interested in raw numbers, they're all in the spreadsheet.

With the Miss division, the Pacific Northwest states of Pageants Northwest have clearly been the most successful at growing and recruiting their numbers since 2007-2009.  David and Maureen took over Idaho in 2008 and Montana in 2014.  Washington's success is due largely to a spike over 70+ contestants between 2014-15 although that settled down this year to a more average 34.  The biggest losers this year compared to the recent years 2013-15 are West Virginia, Vermont and Iowa, whilst Montana, Wisconsin, Missouri and South Dakota have been able to grow their numbers somewhat.

It is Teen where most states have really shed numbers, in sizeable percentages.  With IL and VT, I'd surmise a change in directors has had a significant impact.  In IL, D&D often had 100+ teens, numbers never traditionally seen in Vanbros states.  So in this case I think it may actually be intentional.  I can't explain North Carolina!

This is where it gets concerning.  Only five states have managed to grow their total contestant numbers this year compared to recent years, whilst five different states have had an increase compared to 2007-2009 (and all very modest growth).   Perhaps Washington's 43% should be looked at in light of 2014 & 2015 pulling up their average for the three years I was looking at, but I guess we'll be able to assess that better that next year.

Thoughts?  Anything else you've noticed?  Questions?  I encourage you to please do leave a comment below.

UPDATE - Congratulations to Miss MS USA 2016 Haley Sowers & Miss MS Teen USA 2016 Lauren Rymer!  Full results here.

The first of the five pageants held this weekend will be Miss Mississippi USA & Teen USA 2016.  The new titleholders will be crowned Saturday at the Gold Strike Casino in Tunica.

Three of last year's top five are back in the miss division.  Jayce Henry, who placed second runner-up in 2014 and first runner-up last year, will be hoping to move up a spot for 2016!  The other two are Haley Sowers, 2RU last year, former Miss Mississippi Teen USA 2010 and fourth runner-up at Miss Teen USA and Chandler Short, 3RU last year and a runner-up at Miss Illinois Teen USA 2012. 

Unusually, the first runners-up from 2015 in both divisions will be competing for Miss Mississippi USA this year.  As well as Jayce, 2015 Teen first runner-up Laine Mansour is competing in Miss for the first time.  Miss Mississippi Teen USA 2012 fourth runner-up Alay'keeyan Wilks has also moved up to the Miss competition.

Returning semi-finalists are Juliette King (2015), Kaitlyn Orth (2015), April Mayfield (2014), Melissa Martinez (2013) and Hannah Day (2005 Teen).

Only five out of 29 Teen contestants have competed previously.  The only returning runner-up is 2015 2RU McKaylan Gray.  From last year's top fifteen Alexis Carter and Regan Ringler are back. Three-time Alabama semi-finalist Madeleine Overby ​is competing in MS this year.

* denotes competing in Miss this year | ^ denotes competing in Teen